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Given its quickening parity, high standard of play and expanding list of global superstars, international women’s soccer gives us several guarantees leading into its quadrennial World Cups.
We know, for example, that blowouts are largely a thing of the past. Only a trio of teams at the previous tournament emerged from the group stage with a goal difference of six or better; only two managed to win knockout matches by a spread of three goals.
High drama is also certain. Who can forget American forward Alex Morgan’s tea-sipping celebration against England four years ago. Or Homare Sawa’s extra-time equalizer against the United States in the 2011 final, which Japan eventually won on penalties. Or Brazil’s “almost-era” that saw teams including Marta, Cristiane and Formiga lose not only the 2007 final but also the Olympic Gold Medal matches of 2004 and 2008 — both by spot kicks.
Finally, we can expect the USA to reach at least the semi-finals, as they’ve done at every World Cup and all but one Olympic Games. And we can ask that most common, perhaps tiresome, of questions: Can anyone beat them? And, if so, who?
Spain, Germany, England
Last month’s Champions League final provides some insight in this regard.
Of the top 10 vote-getters for the 2022 Ballon d’Or, five were involved in the match between Barcelona and Wolfsburg in Eindhoven. Two were Spanish, two German and one English. Their respective national teams are this World Cup’s major contenders not wearing the stars and stripes — and in that order. Spain, with Alexia Putellas having won the previous two Ballons d’Or, get the tiebreaker.
In fact, you could argue that La Roja are tournament favourites, full stop.
From the top of the squad to the bottom, from goalkeeper thru attack, this is a team loaded with talent, boasting some of the world’s best players and a number of all-time greats. Putellas, at 29, falls into both categories. She’s also put in admirable work to overcome an ACL injury that cost her almost all of the 2022-23 club season. At even 60%, she’s the planet’s top midfielder. At 70%, its top player.
Add fellow midfielder Aitana Bonmati and strikers Esther Gonzalez and Jenni Hermoso to the mix, and Spain could end up cooking something special in Australia and New Zealand.
Germany, as it happens, beat Spain — without the injured Putellas — at last year’s Euros. Then they eliminated France before falling to England in extra time at Wembley. Wolfsburg striker Alexandra Popp finished co-top goalscorer; midfielder Lena Oberdorf, her club teammate, was named Best Young Player. The two came sixth and fourth, respectively, on the Ballon d’Or list.
Winning their group won’t be an issue for the two-time world champions, though a tricky round of 16 match-up with one of Brazil and France will present an early test. But with the competition’s tightest defense and Popp’s ability to find the back of the net, Germany’s campaign looks set to extend into mid-August.
Having edged Germany at the Euros, England might well have arrived Down Under as their continent’s most serious impediment to an American three-peat. Injuries to key players, however, have undoubtedly hurt their chances.
There’s simply no replacing a Leah Williamson (ACL), Fran Kirby (knee) or Beth Mead (ACL), especially Mead. Aston Villa’s Rachel Daly is now the most pedigreed striker in the squad, with just 13 international goals.
The Lionesses need another standout tournament from Lucy Bronze, the 10th-ranked player in Ballon d’Or voting, and if there was ever a time for Georgia Stanway to steal the spotlight and keep it a while, it’s surely now.
Into the knockouts: prospective round of 16
Norway-Japan; United States-Italy; Spain-New Zealand; Sweden-Netherlands; Canada-Denmark; Brazil-Colombia; England-Nigeria; Germany-France
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