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With about three-quarters of this year’s harvest in the bin, it’s become apparent that Manitoba farmers fared better than their western counterparts through the droughty 2023 summer.
Harvest is running well ahead of the average pace, with only sporadic delays as the equipment chews its way through the remaining fields. Yields are highly variable, which speaks to the hit-and-miss nature of how the rain fell this growing season.
The province’s weekly crop report cites spring wheat yields that range from a 16 bushels per acre in the driest regions to 90 bushels per acre, with much of the crop in the 35- to 80-bushel per acre range.
Quality overall, however, is excellent. Most of the province’s wheat crop is grading within the top two grades with high protein, which often sells at a premium. The unfolding story is similar for the other crops — variable yields with fair to excellent quality.
It’s a remarkable turn of events given the amount of rain farmers received. Much of the province received less than half of what would be considered a normal rainfall during the growing season. That means the crop they got was largely supported by subsoil moisture. Provincial monitoring shows those reserves have been largely depleted, which means next year’s crop will depend heavily on rains before freeze-up and a good snowpack to help with recharge.
The moisture situation worsens farther west. Yields are dismal, livestock producers face feed shortages and water levels across the south are falling to critical lows.
The provincial governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan are already rolling out disaster relief programs. More than 70 rural municipalities in Saskatchewan have declared states of emergency.
The entire Prairie region has experienced drier-than-normal conditions to varying degrees since 2016.
Now we’re back into an El Nino event, which typically results in drier and warmer winters for the Prairies. This is on top of documented warming trends widely attributed to climate change.
July 2023 globally was the hottest on record. As of the end of August, 65 per cent of the country’s agricultural landscape was categorized by the federal drought monitor program as ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions.
Whether they like it or not, whether they believe climate change is real or fabricated, whether they are even conscious of it, Prairie farmers are adapting to these changing conditions.
There are growing concerns that the current conditions will cause producers nearing retirement to accelerate their exit plan, especially from the cattle business. The industry is already critically short of people who know how to do the work.
And it’s not just happening here.
Bayer, the global pharmaceutical and life sciences company, released this month the results of a survey it commissioned of farmers in eight countries.
More than 70 per cent of the 800 farmers surveyed reported feeling the effects of climate change. Farm incomes have been reduced on average by 15.7 per cent as a result the change in weather patterns.
Notably, the survey didn’t include farmers from Canada. However, it saw common themes in the responses from both large-scale and smallholder farmers in Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Kenya, Ukraine and the United States.
Ninety per cent of the farmers interviewed said they’re experienced hotter temperatures for more prolonged periods and 73 per cent reported increased disease and pest pressures. Droughts are experienced more frequently by 33 per cent of farmers surveyed, while 24 per cent are seeing more high-intensity rains and flooding.
More than 80 per cent of the farmers said they are already implementing or planning to implement strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Forty-three per cent are adding cover crops to their rotation, 37 per cent are using renewable energy, and every farmer interviewed said they are committed to increasing biodiversity on their farms.
They are also looking to new technologies such as enhanced varieties, crop protection and digital tools to help them become more resilient.
In a nutshell, securing global food security going forward will require skilled farmers, continued investments in innovation and a heaping measure of good luck.
Laura Rance is vice-president of content for Glacier FarmMedia. She can be reached at lrance@farmmedia.com
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