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Natural Gas yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 233.4 on forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected related in part to a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied (LNG) export plants. That price decline came despite a drop in output and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through mid-July, especially in Texas.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June. Daily, moreover, output was on track to plunge 2.3 bcfd to a preliminary 20-week low of 99.2 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and Texas. That would be the biggest daily drop in output since December 2022, but analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal from June 28-July 12. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.0 bcfd this week to 102.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv’s outlook on Monday.
Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.81% to settle at 13542 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 230.5 and below same could see a test of 227.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.1, a move above could see prices testing 240.7.
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